人们常担心全球变暖会导致一些本来存在于热带的病菌向其他地方扩散，新一期英国《自然—气候变化》（Nature Climate Change）杂志刊登的一份报告证实了这种现象的存在。这项研究显示，弧菌疫情在北欧的暴发与当地海洋的变暖有关。
弧菌是一类可引起肠道感染的细菌，它会引发肠胃炎和霍乱等疾病。这种细菌通常存在于较温暖的水域中，人们如果吃了不干净的水产品就可能会染病。
在气候较冷的北欧波罗的海沿岸地区，过去出现弧菌病例的数量并不太多，但一个国际研究小组调查后发现，近来这一地区感染弧菌的病例数量出现上升趋势，并且这些病例的分布情况与当地水温的变化呈现出明显相关性，如果一个地方水温上升1摄氏度，病例数量就可能翻倍。
本次研究显示，近三十年来，波罗的海的海水温度上升很快，速度为每十年0.63到0.78摄氏度，远高于同期全球地表气温上升速度（每十年约0.17摄氏度）的水平。研究人员因此认为，波罗的海海水这种显著的变暖，增强了弧菌在沿岸地区的传播能力。
研究人员说，过去一些气候较寒冷地区的弧菌疫情常被归结于某个具体的短期原因，但现在看来在气候变化的大背景下，也需要注意全球变暖的影响。而对于全球变暖对其他一些病菌传播能力带来什么样的变化，还需要进行更多的研究。（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1038/nclimate1628
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Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming
Craig Baker-Austin; Joaquin A. Trinanes; Nick G. H. Taylor; Rachel Hartnell; Anja Siitonen; Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982–2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063–0.078?°C?yr?1 (6.3–7.8?°C per century; refs 1, 2), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.
