近日，国际著名杂志SSCI期刊Applied Geography刊登了中科院地理科学与资源研究所刘彦随研究员的研究成果“Climate warming and land use change in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China。”；学术界日渐认同气候变暖并导致农业生产的适宜范围扩大的观点。但气候变化与农业生产布局的耦合关系，亟需得到区域响应的模拟研究和检验。
中科院地理科学与资源研究所刘彦随研究员与国际合作者以我国黑龙江省为典型案例，利用近50年来土地利用和气象观测数据，模拟分析了气候变暖与水稻田面积扩展的关系。
研究结果显示：1）1960-2009年水稻田播种面积与气温升高具有同向性，大多数地区增温超过2℃，水稻田面积增加350多万ha；2）水稻田空间扩张与气温空间分布变化基本一致，大多位于2-3℃等值线之间；3）水稻田空间扩张对气温变暖响应表现出明显的滞后性。1970-1990年0℃等温线北移达163km，其增温影响的地域范围最大，而水稻田面积大幅增加主要集中在1993-2009年的16年间，其增幅与过去30余年的差不多。研究结果表明，水稻田面积大幅扩展对气候快速变暖的显著响应，大约推迟20年的时间。（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.11.005
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Climate warming and land use change in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China
Jay Gao, Yansui Liu
This study explores the relationship between climate warming and rice paddy expansion in Heilongjiang Province of China. It is found that paddy fields more than quadrupled from 3479 km2 in 1958 to 14 564 km2 in 1980, and increased further to 21,940 km2 in 2000. The newly gained paddy fields originated chiefly from dry fields (46.35%), swamps (30.22%), and primary forest (nearly 10%) during 1958–1980. During 1980–2000 paddy fields expanded at the expense of dry fields (70.50%), swamp (16.59%), and grassland (10.13%). Analysis of climate data shows a warming of over 2 °C from the 1960s to the 2000s in most places. All 28 meteorological stations except one experienced a warming trend. Spatially, the expansion of paddy fields coincided closely with the spatial distribution of annual temperature. These fields were located mostly between the isolines of 2–3 °C. Sowing area of grain increased at a modest rate during the 1970s and the 1980s when >0 °C area expanded rapidly. However, sowing area of rice rose in the 1990s and 2000s at a rate twice higher than that for sowing area of grain in the preceding decades. Thus, the expansion of paddy fields at the expense of other land covers was made possible owing to climate warming in the preceding decade. On average, it takes about 20 years for agricultural practices to adapt to the warmer climate.
